Leading Republicans are entering the final month of the midterm campaign increasingly optimistic that a Senate majority is within reach even as a dramatic family fight in Georgia clouds one of the party’s biggest pickup opportunities.

And as some Democrats crow on social media about apparent Republican setbacks, party strategists privately concede that their own shortcomings may not be outweighed by the GOP’S mounting challenges.

The evolving outlook is tied to a blunt reality: Democrats have virtually no margin for error as they confront the weight of history, widespread economic concerns and President Joe Biden’s weak standing. There is broad agreement among both parties that the Democrats’ summertime momentum across states like Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin has eroded just five weeks before Election Day.

“There’s reason to be apprehensive, not reason to be gloomy,” veteran Democratic strategist James Carville said. “It looked like at the end of August we had a little momentum. I don’t know if we’ve regressed any, but we’re not progressing in many places.”

That tepid outlook comes even as Republicans confront a series of self-imposed setbacks in the states that matter most in the 2022 midterms, which will decide the balance of power in Congress and statehouses across the nation.

None has been more glaring than Herschel Walker’s struggles in Georgia, where the Republican Senate candidate’s own son accused him of lying about his personal challenges — including a report from The Daily Beast alleging that the anti-abortion Walker paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009. Walker called the accusation a “flat-out lie” and said he would sue.

Walker had not taken legal action as of late Tuesday, but he repeated his denials Wednesday morning during a Fox News interview, even as he talked generally of a difficult past as a husband and father. Shown an image of the “get well” card the Daily Beast reported that he sent to the girlfriend — which was signed with an “H,” not his full signature — Walker said, he doesn’t sign cards with just an initial.

The Republican establishment, including the Sen. Mitch Mcconnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, and former President Donald Trump himself remained staunchly behind Walker on Tuesday in his bid to oust first-term Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. A Walker campaign adviser said the candidate has raised at least $500,000 since he first responded publicly to The Daily

Beast report.

“If you’re in a fight, people will come to your aid,” said Steven Law, head of the Senate Leadership Fund and a close ally of Mcconnell, R-KY.

Law said the Georgia race had grown increasingly competitive despite the Democrats’ focus on Walker’s personal life. And looking beyond Georgia, Law said the political climate was predictably shifting against the party that controls the White House, as is typically the case in midterm elections.

“It certainly seems that voters are returning to a more traditional midterm frame of mind,” Law said.

Should Republicans gain even one Senate seat in November, they would take control of Congress’ upper chamber — and with it, the power to control judicial nominations and policy debates for the last two years of Biden’s term. Leaders in both parties believe Republicans are likely to take over the House.

Even facing such odds, it’s far too soon to predict a Republican-controlled Congress.

Democrats remain decidedly on offense and are spending heavily to try to flip Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Voter opposition to the Supreme Court’s decision this summer to strip women of their constitutional right to an abortion has energized the Democratic base and led to a surge in female voter registrations.

Republicans are most focused on Democratic incumbents in Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada, although Republican officials believe that underwhelming Trumpbacked nominees in Arizona and New Hampshire have dampened the party’s pickup opportunities.

“The Republican candidates they’re running are too extreme,” said J.B. Poersch, who leads the pro-democrat Senate Majority PAC. “I think this is still advantage Democrats.”

Meanwhile, conditions in the top battleground states are rapidly evolving.

In Pennsylvania, Republican Senate nominee Mehmet Oz faced difficult new questions this week raised by a Washington Post article about the medical products he endorsed as a daytime television star. Another news report by the news site Jezebel detailing how his research caused hundreds of dogs to be killed rippled across social media.

Still, Democratic officials acknowledge the race tightened considerably as the calendar shifted to October. And while there is disagreement within the White House, some officials there are concerned about Democratic nominee John Fetterman’s stamina as he recovers from a May stroke.