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Will the GOP presidential race be a repeat of 2016?

The writers address whether the Republican presidential candidates are doing a repeat of the 2016 campaign.

CHRISTOPHER NICHOLAS JENNIFER KRANTZ

Viewpoint 1: Christopher Nicholas

Those afraid that the 2024 GOP presidential contest will become a repeat of 2016 need not worry. The race is radically different this year; it will not play out the same.

First, former president Donald Trump is greatly diminished compared with 2015, when he first glided down his escalator in front of all those paid “volunteers.”

Second, the rest of next year’s budding GOP candidates are well-acquainted with the former president’s playbook and will know how to fight him.

Third, the “unstoppable” sheen that Trump once had has vanished after losses in every major election from 2018 onward. He must now labor under the worst label any politician can have: loser.

Instead of a repeat of 2016, 2024 looks more like a continuation of what we saw in 2020: Trump cannot compete anywhere new, and he cannot put any new voters or states in play. In short, he’s playing a losing game of being able to attract only voters who had previously supported him.

While he can still persuade many GOP donors to send their hardearned dollars to his campaign, his political message now falters more than it inspires.

Plus, the party has produced a few non-trump grievance candidates, so voters still attracted to that style of messaging now have options they didn’t have in 2016.

More GOP primary voters will cast strategic votes in the 2024 primary because they know we need a stronger general election candidate than Trump. And now the balance of the Republican field can’t be snuck up on, as so many of them were back in 2016.

Trump is a one-trick pony. His trick is a good one, but, simply put, his opponents know what’s coming.

Finally, Trump’s opponents know the American people have rejected him, not once but three times: In 2018, when the GOP lost the House; in 2020, when it lost the presidency and the Senate twice (on election night and again on runoff day in Georgia); and once again last year. Trump’s invincibility cloak is tattered, torn and useless.

This is driving the entry of so many new candidates and so much new funding.

And don’t forget the myriad legal issues Trump faces in multiple jurisdictions from local, state and federal prosecutors. Unlike the civil trial he legally skipped recently in New York, he would need to actually attend any criminal trial, say in Fulton County, Ga., or in federal court.

Besides sapping his time, this would forcefully reiterate to the country in general, and to Republican primary voters in particular, that Trump is damaged goods, on the decline and — most important — the only GOP nominee who could lose to Biden.

In 2016, Trump barely beat Hillary Clinton, the most compromised Democratic nominee in modern history. In 2020, he lost decisively to the second most compromised Democrat nominee. Let’s hope the other candidates in the Republican field act accordingly and that GOP voters realize our 2024 nomination needs to be stronger and more decisive.

Viewpoint 2: Jennifer Krantz

A large field of qualified candidates is setting up the Republican primaries for a repeat of 2016.

No one expected political neophyte Donald Trump to suck up all of the oxygen in the 2016 Republican primaries when the party had one of the most qualified slates of candidates in recent memory.

Sitting U.S. senators, popular current and former governors from important swing states, and a former CEO of a major company all shared the debate stage with Trump, and most expected their experience to rise above his media presence.

But experience as a legislator or executive didn’t matter. A long history of promoting Republican principles didn’t matter. Even ethical norms that have previously been well-established were out the window.

Trump masterfully harnessed the 24-hour news cycle and his Twitter prowess to control the narrative. Why did policy positions matter so little in 2016? The primaries became a nationwide reckoning, a moment when frustrated Americans sought a fighter who would demolish the broken system instead of merely applying Band-aids. People craved radical change as the American dream crumbled.

So here we are, on the cusp of another raucous primary season. What’s different this time? Some argue that Trump’s loss in 2020 and questions about his electability have opened the field. Others point to rising stars such as Gov. Ron Desantis and Sen. Tim Scott as genuine potential contenders. Then there are the potential legal entanglements that might throw a wrench into Trump’s plans. And he’s no longer on Twitter, making it harder for him to dominate the news cycle.

However, let’s not forget that nobody believed Trump could win in 2016, and we know how that turned out. Back then, stellar candidates with exceptional qualities ultimately fell short. Even more recently, Trump experienced a boost in polling after his indictment.

None of these factors fundamentally alter the dynamics of the furious voters who propelled Trump to victory before. And people are still unhappy. Fewer than 25% believe the country is on the right track, according to the Realclearpolitics polling average.

So where does this leave the other candidates? If candidates try to out-trump Trump, they fail. Sadly, focusing on policy prescriptions is an exercise in futility. While there are indeed individuals who care about these issues, the ideas often go unheard amid the noise of the political landscape.

The 2016 primaries were dominated by controversial statements, viral moments and media dramas overshadowing policy discussions. In the era of social media and 24/7 news coverage, the 2024 primaries will probably experience similar dynamics, favoring candidates who thrive in a chaotic and attention-seeking environment, which obviously tilts the race in favor of Trump. This puts the other candidates in an impossible, unwinnable position.

The only way to avoid repeating 2016 is a numbers game. If there are still five or six candidates in the Iowa caucus, the “never-trump” voters will be spread out among the other candidates, making it impossible for someone else to come out on top. With a couple of quick victories in the early states, the sense of inevitability will swell, propelling the front-runner Trump toward the nomination.

Even if it were a one-on-one race, polling suggests that most Republican voters might still support Trump.

Christopher Nicholas is president of Eagle Consulting Group and for the last six years has appeared as a commentator on “This Week In Pennsylvania.” Jennifer Krantz is a senior vice president at Firehouse Strategies, a former congressional communications staffer and a Republican campaign operative.

OP/ED

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2023-05-27T07:00:00.0000000Z

2023-05-27T07:00:00.0000000Z

https://daily.gazette.com/article/281852942944389

The Gazette, Colorado Springs