The possible end to the Federal Reserve’s long campaign of rate hikes appears like an oasis to beaten-down Wall Street investors, but it may end up being just a mirage.

With inflation cooling from its peak last summer, Wall Street overwhelmingly assumes the central bank will hold rates steady for the first time in more than a year when it meets next month.

History says that’s great for Wall Street. Going back to the 1980s, the S&P 500 has jumped an average of nearly 6% in the three months after the Fed makes its final increase in a rate-hike campaign.

But something makes today different than those four times: how bad inflation is. Inflation was still 4.9% in April, way above the Fed’s 2% target.

That may make today’s scenario more like the rate-hike campaigns that ended in 1969, 1973 and 1981. The S&P 500 fell by an average of 6.6% in the three months following the final rate hike in those episodes, according to strategists at Morgan Stanley. The difference may be that when inflation is elevated, the Fed may need to keep rates on hold for a long time. When inflation is lower, meanwhile, it can more quickly begin cutting rates, something that acts like steroids for financial markets.

Traders have already built bets for the Fed to cut rates later this year, while the Fed has said it expects none if things go according to plan.