Retailers thrive on tantalizing shoppers ahead of Black Friday, the post-Thanksgiving event, keeping them guessing about how exactly the experience will unfold. But economic conditions, past sales and other factors can provide clues about what’s to come. Here’s what marketing, retail and supply chain experts expect for Black Friday 2023. 1 Shoppers and retailers may scale back “A lot of macroeconomic indicators are pointing to a big slowdown in spending,” says Jeff Galak, associate professor of marketing at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business. Signs include record-high consumer credit card debt, a reduced personal savings rate and the increased cost of goods due to inflation, Galak says. Consumers are feeling the pinch. Some 2023 shoppers say they plan to purchase gifts for fewer people this holiday season (31%) or spend less on gifts per person (30%) compared with past years, according to the 2023 Holiday Shopping Report from NerdWallet. Retailers are facing pressures too, which likely means smaller markdowns for Black Friday, Galak says. 2 Sales will persist While Black Friday prices probably won’t reach all-time lows, shoppers will find deals galore. In fact, many retailers have been in holiday sales mode since the beginning of October. Retailers bring out some of their best sales when they know customers are most prone to shop. Black Friday remained the most popular shopping day of Thanksgiving weekend in 2022, notes Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at the National Retail Federation. “It does seem that even with the early start to the shopping season, consumers do still very much look to Thanksgiving weekend for a sense of tradition,” she says. 3 Deliveries could face interruptions Lingering effects from a weekslong autoworkers strike could create shipping delays for holiday shoppers and retailers, as could a federal government shutdown. The U.S. government narrowly escaped a shutdown in September, but funding lasts only through Nov. 17 — one week before Black Friday. Still, experts don’t expect the same level of supply chain disruptions as in the past couple of years. Retailers have taken steps to diversify their supply chains and work around external shocks, Cullen says. Retailers have also been increasingly transparent about what’s in stock, where it’s available and how long deliveries might take, Cullen adds, which can help shoppers decide what to buy and when. This article was provided to The Associated Press by the personal finance website NerdWallet. Want to suggest a personal finance topic that Quick Fix can address? Email apmoney@ap.org